China Shenhua (601088): Integration advantage highlights cash cows with stable net profit attributable to mothers
Event: Net profit attributable to mothers is expected to increase by approximately 5% annually in the first half of the year.
The company released the forecast of the first half of the year. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the mother in the first half of 2019 will be about $ 24.2 billion, + 5% per year, and the non-net profit will be about $ 22.7 billion, which will be changed to -1%.
According to the first quarterly report, non-recurring gains and losses are mainly investment gains confirmed by the completion of a joint venture with Guodian.
Operating data: Q2 crops increased by nearly 5% from the previous month, and monthly average power generation increased by nearly 17% from the previous month.
In the first 失败:重查 half of the year, the company’s commercial coal production was 1.
4.5 billion tons, previously -0.
3% of coal sales 2.
1.7 billion tons, before -3.
6%, the company’s output in Q2 single quarter increased by nearly 3.
4%, we think that the impact of the Yulin Mine Difficulty on the company’s coal production gradually weakened.
The company issued / sold 335/313 in Q2.
500 million kWh, with an average monthly rate of 111.
500 million kilowatt-hours, an increase in the average monthly generation / sale power after the divestment of the underlying assets in the previous quarter.
2% / 12.
In the first half of the year, the average price of Qingang 5500 kcal thermal coal was 605 yuan / ton, many times -8.
8%, against the background of the potential decline in port coal prices, the company’s first half performance is still solid, coal-electricity integration advantages are prominent.
The chairman of the group serves as the company’s chairman, and the company’s long-term stable development is expected.
The former chairman of the company, Dr. Ling Wen, resigned on April 26 this year. The company has elected the chairman of National Energy Investment Group Wang Xiangxi as the chairman of China Shenhua in late June.Holding the position of the company in the group, the new chairman has rich experience in coal industry management, which helps to grasp the position of the company after the merger of the group and is conducive to the company’s long-term stable development.
Cash in hand, long-term and stable high dividends can be expected.
At the end of the first quarter, the company’s book cash was 891 trillion, and undistributed profit reached 2198 trillion.
According to the company’s Q2 operation, consider the 2018 annual dividend payment (0 per year.
88 yuan, a total of about 175 million, the exchange rate of 4.
9%), we estimate that cash will still be close to 90 billion yuan.
Following the growth of net profit of $ 420 million attributable to mothers, maintaining a 40% dividend ratio, it is gradually lowering (A / H closing prices on August 9, 2019 were 18 respectively.
218 yuan), the company’s A-share / H-share dividend yields can reach 4 respectively.
7% / 6.
We believe that the company has a stable operation and has a long and stable high dividend payout capability.
Profit forecast and estimation.
The company’s performance is solid, with abundant cash flow, and its integration advantage is obvious under the background of falling coal prices.
We expected 19?
The company’s EPS is 2 in 21 years.
87 yuan, with reference to comparable coal and thermal power companies, given the company 11 November 2019?
13 times PE, corresponding to a reasonable value range of 23.
43 yuan, maintaining the “primary market” rating.
The price of thermal coal has dropped sharply, and the price of electricity has been significantly reduced.