OP Lighting (603515) Review of 2019 Third Quarterly Report: Management Adjustments Cause Operating Pressure to Gradually Bottom and Improve

OP Lighting (603515) Review of 2019 Third Quarterly Report: Management Adjustments Cause Operating Pressure to Gradually Bottom and Improve

Event: OP Lighting released the third quarter report of 2019, and the company achieved revenue 57 in the first three quarters.

700 million, +3 a year.

3%, net profit attributable to mother 6.

0 million yuan, ten years +5.

6%, net of non-attributed net profit4.

200 million, +4 a year.

1%.

  Among them, 19Q3 achieved revenue of 19 in a single quarter.

9 ‰, at least -3.

3%, net profit attributable to mother 2.

0 million yuan, at least -7.

0%, deducting non-attributed net profit to achieve 7.
.

9% growth, due to the higher base received 35.4 million government subsidies in the same period last year, resulting in a decrease in overall profits.

  Opinion: Revenue analysis: The single-season transition is affected by industry pressure and its own operating adjustments, and the growth rate is expected to have bottomed out.

  The decrease in the company’s single quarter revenue is still mainly affected by the offline home business. It is estimated that the previous two figures of the offline home business in the single quarter.

In terms of different channels: 1) Offline retail: The personnel of the previous team has been adjusted. In order to promote the gradual operation reform, it has taken the initiative to destock, and the inventory has decreased by -15%.

In the future, SKU will be further optimized, the new speed and turnover efficiency of store openings will be strengthened, and new business formats such as assembly will be developed to promote retail transformation.

  The company’s offline retail has been adjusted for nearly two years, and it is expected to resume double positive growth next year.

  2) Offline circulation: There was a certain diversion and channel conflict between the early stage and retail business. After the policy was re-divided, it focused on the expansion of township channels, forming a distinction between store form and products.

At present, the problem has been basically solved, and double-digit growth is expected to resume from Q4.

  3) Commercial photo: It is still the highlight of current growth. It is estimated that Q3 has maintained a rapid growth of nearly 30%.

The company’s commercial license business has built a leading domestic R & D and industry promotion platform. Through the gradual expansion of revenue, the effect of scale has begun to appear, and the profit margin has continued to increase.

  4) E-commerce: The growth rate is expected to fluctuate slightly, but it is mainly dragged down by weak industry demand. The company’s share in major online platforms remains first and gradually increases.

  Taken together, although the company’s single-quarter revenue has increased, considering the impact of personnel adjustments and active destocking, it is expected that the growth rate will bottom out during the year and gradually transform into a positive growth in the home business business. Revenue is expected to improve quarter by quarter.

  Profitability: Home price competition has slowed, and the increase in the scale effect of commercial lighting has helped boost the company’s single-quarter gross profit margin37.

0%, ten years +0.

9pct, which is also 1.

1pct boost.

In addition to the improvement in the competitive situation of the household business (especially online), through the expansion of business license business income, the scale effect has become apparent, and the estimated profitability has also improved significantly, driving the gross profit margin upward.

The expense ratio is generally stable, and the sales expense ratio is -1 per year.

3pct, financial expense ratio increased slightly.

  The company’s operating quality is still stable, with net cash flow from operations in the first three quarters.

10,000 yuan, compared with the same period last year 1.

7 billion improvement is obvious.

The net cash at the end of the period (plus wealth management) was nearly 4 billion, with abundant reserves.

  Earnings forecasts, estimates and ratings and ratings are affected by industry pressures and their own business adjustments, as well as the high base of government subsidies during the same period last year, and the company’s single-quarter revenue and profit replaced by the amount.

However, considering that personnel adjustments and voluntary destocking are nearing 淡水桑拿网 their end, it is expected that the growth rate will bottom out during the year, and then transfer to the home business business growth will turn positive, and revenue is expected to improve quarter by quarter.
  In the long run, the concentration of the lighting industry will still improve. After the company completes its products and further reforms of the channel, it is still expected to usher in a new round of growth.
Considering that Q4 last year had a higher non-recurring profit and loss base, we slightly reduced 2019?
The 21-year EPS forecast is 1.

23/1.

45/1.

69 yuan (previous forecast 1).

33/1.

59/1.

85 yuan), corresponding to PE21 / 18/15 times, combined with subsequent improvement expectations at the bottom, maintain the “Buy” rating.

  Risk reminders: Demand improvement is not up to expectations; weak changes in specialty stores; increased competition.