Gujing Liquor (000596): The potential energy can continue to improve performance and release flexibility

Gujing Liquor (000596): The potential energy can continue to improve performance and release flexibility

Profit in the third quarter increased by 11.

9% / 35.

6%, the performance exceeded market expectations.

The company’s revenue in the first three quarters of 19 was 82.

3.0 billion, +2天津夜网1 in the past.

31%, net profit attributable to mother 17.

42 billion, previously +38.

69%, net of non-attributed net profit 16.

100 million, previously +32.

04%.

Company 19Q3 revenue 22.

15 billion, previously +11.

91%, net profit attributable to mother 4.

9.3 billion, previously +35.

78%, net of non-attributed net profit4.

44 billion, exceeding + 28%, the performance exceeded market expectations.

19Q3 final advance payment 8.

900 million a year -20.

11%, an increase of 3 from the previous quarter.

7.2 billion, Q3 sales recovery of 2.9 billion, five years -5.

4%, operating net cash flow of 1.2 billion yuan, -35 for the year.

8% was mainly due to the increase in purchases in the third quarter and the increase in employee wages and taxes.

  The increase in labor costs and the conversion of some promotional expenses into discounts resulted in a slight decrease in gross profit margin, and a decline in the sales expense ratio pushed up the net interest rate.

The company’s gross profit margin for the first three quarters of 19 was 76.

31% a year -1.

62 points, gross profit margin 75 in 19Q3.

19% per year -2.

09%, under the background of continuous upgrade of product structure (grassroots analysis and feedback, in the third quarter, the ancient 8 and above products continued to maintain a high growth rate, the ancient 5 and the number of gifts increased, the structure continued to upgrade, it is expected that ancient 8 and above accounted for over 30%). The decrease in gross profit margin was mainly due to two reasons: 1) the increase in labor costs; 2) the conversion of part of the promotional expenses to discounts also affected the gross profit margin.

19Q3 sales expense ratio was 25.

84%, at least -7.

27pct, mainly due to the reduction in comprehensive promotional fees. Since the second quarter, the company has gradually reduced the cost-related expenses. The mid-autumn peak season expenses are also relatively replaced. In the future, the company will gradually eliminate the carry-over expenses and replace the discount form. The 19Q2 management expense rate (includingR & D) 7.

51% every year -0.

73pct, tax and surcharge 15.

33%, ten years +2.

08pct, the decline in the expense ratio pushed up the net interest rate by 3.

99% to 22.

86%.

  The Q3 revenue growth rate from the 19H1 quarter-on-quarter growth rate was mainly due to the high base last year and the company’s initiative to control the scheduling rhythm. The 10 billion target plan was successfully completed.The company’s Q3 revenue growth rate is faster than that in the first half of the year, mainly due to two reasons: first, the high base in the same period last year; second, the Q3 company actively controlled the scheduling rhythm, and grassroots analysis and feedback.This task was benign during the peak season. After the holiday, the dealers’ inventory was lower than the same period last year, and the price was also firm. Thus, the goal of completing the 10 billion plan was successfully completed.

  Stepping into the province’s share harvest period, upgrading + fee control, performance flexibility was gradually released.

According to grassroots analysis and feedback, since the beginning of this year, the performance of Gujing Province has become stronger and stronger. It has transformed from Hefei city to the surrounding market of Hefei. Compared with the competitive products in the province, the marketing of Gujing is more wolf and the market share in the province has accelerated.The growth rate of revenue growth is the result of the company’s active control, and the revenue growth in the first three quarters remained high.

At present, the company’s inventory is reasonable and the price is stable.

We believe that the company is currently entering a period of rapid market share harvest and its revenue is expected to continue to grow at a relatively high level.

On the profit side, one is to benefit from the upgrade of the product structure, and the ancient 8 and above continue to maintain high growth. The other is to benefit from cost optimization. The company has effectively strengthened internal cost control. Since this year, it has gradually reduced the cost-related expenses and optimized the cost structure.The SAP system went online after January 1st, the company’s internal efficiency has further improved, and the future expense ratio is expected to continue to decline. The performance flexibility is worth looking forward to.

  The performance exceeded expectations, the current estimated margin of safety is high, and the “strong recommendation-A” rating is re-ranked.

We believe that the company is gradually entering the province’s share harvesting period, benefiting from the two logics of “concentration + upgrade”. In the next three years, revenue is expected to maintain a high growth rate. On the profit side, upgrade + fee control and flexible release of performance are worth looking forward to.

Maintain 19-20 EPS4.

59, 5.

50 yuan, the current corresponding 20-year estimate is only 19 X, the safety margin is high, maintain a one-year target price of 138 yuan, corresponding to 20 X 25 X, re-enter the “strongly recommended-A” rating.

  Risk reminder: demand falls, competition within the province intensifies, and development outside the province is less than expected.