Gree Electric (000651): Steady growth and mixed changes are expected
Gree 北京夜生活网 Electric released its semi-annual report for 2019, achieving steady growth in revenue and profit.
19H1 achieved operating income of 972.
9.7 billion, an annual increase of 6.
95%; net profit attributable to mother is 137.
50 ppm, a ten-year increase of 7.
Single Q2 achieved operating income of 567.
49 ppm, an increase of 10 in ten years.
38%; net profit attributable to mother is 80.
78 ppm, an increase of 11 years.
Revenue grew steadily.
In terms of products, 19H1 air conditioners achieved revenue of 793.
200 million, +4 a year.
6%; income from household appliances is 25.
600 million, +63 in ten years.
6%; smart equipment achieves revenue 4.
200 million, +16 a year.
By region, the company’s main business realized domestic sales of 694.
600 million, ten years +6.
9%; export sales realized revenue of 138.
700 million, +0 a year.
The growth of the air-conditioning industry and the average retail value in the first half of 19th showed that the industry’s online data showed that the domestic sales of the 19H1 industry replaced 52.88 million units, only an increase of 0.
2%; Zhongyikang data show that air-conditioning retail volume has also continued to grow negatively for 4 quarters since 18Q3.
We believe that under the pressure of weak terminal sales and channel destocking, it is valuable that the company’s air-conditioning category still achieves positive growth.
The gross sales margin decreased, the net profit margin increased slightly, and the overall operation was stable.
19H1 company’s operating gross margin starting point +0.
9 points to 31.
7%, of which air conditioning gross margin was 36.
0%, ten years +1.
The selling expense rate goes up by 1 per second.
9pct caused the final gross sales difference (gross profit-sales expense ratio) to drop by 0.
R & D expense ratio and management expense ratio remained at 3.
1% and 1.9%, the increase in interest income and foreign exchange income caused the financial expense ratio to decline by 0 every year.
On the whole, the expansion of the gross sales difference and the consolidation of the financial expense ratio decreased, and the company’s overall net profit margin increased slightly.
1 point to 14.
Q2 other flow resistance items decreased by 5 compared with Q1.
At the end of the reporting period, the company’s net operating cash flow was 164.
600 million, +84 in ten years.
1%, cash + wealth management + structured deposits exceeded 140 billion yuan, overall operating quality and asset quality remained the same.
Mixed reforms are advancing steadily, and future development is expected.
Since the company announced some major matters regarding the transfer of shareholders’ shares in early April this year, relevant issues have been steadily advancing until the existing share transfer plan has been approved in principle by the local SASAC. On August 13, 2019, the company disclosedThe Announcement on the Public Solicitation of Partial Shares of the Transfer Company of the Agreement was issued, the conditions of the transferee and the timetable of the transferee were disclosed, and the distribution of the transfer was gradually promoted.
We believe that no matter what the final final plan is, this Gree Electric Appliance’s distribution and transfer will be a fair attempt to unbundle, making high-quality enterprises more market-oriented and in line with the basic direction of high-quality state-owned enterprise mixed reform.
Investment advice and profit forecast.
From a fundamental point of view, we judge that the company’s industry leader has no damage, and the estimation and performance match are still high, and its long-term value is solid.
In the long run, the air-conditioning ceiling is still far away, and the leading market is difficult to shake under the logic of strong Hengqiang. From the perspective of forecasting, the company’s absolute estimate is still low, and the benchmark industry and international leading PE have a significant discount.
In the short term, we believe that after the event of the transfer of property rights, the Gree dividend ratio is trying to recover to a higher level.
The difference between the company’s original and Midea Group is poor. We believe that one is that the company’s business structure is single, the dispersion is not smooth, and the other 杭州夜网论坛 is that the company as a state-owned enterprise, the overall corporate governance and executive incentive mechanism is not as beautiful.
However, in general, the company ‘s domestic consumer electronics sector has grown, and after the distribution and transfer event is completed, we believe that the corporate governance structure is expected to be better optimized, and the estimated difference with Midea will help narrow it.
Therefore, we predict that EPS will be 5 in 19-21.
02 yuan, 5.
82 yuan, 6.
65 yuan, given 19 years 10-12xPE estimate, corresponding to a reasonable value range of 50.
24 yuan, maintain the “preliminary market” rating.
Channel inventory risk, terminal demand is less than expected.